?FURIA Esports defied the odds and qualified for the PGL Major Stockholm 2021 playoffs on Monday with a 2-1 victory against Entroipiq. FURIA ended the group stage with a 3-1 record, including a loss against Astralis (10-16) and victories against MOUZ (16-9) and Team Liquid (16-9).

Gambit Esports were billed as one of the favourites to go all the way and win the organisation’s first Major title since PGL Major Kraków 2017, but they haven’t been too convincing so far. On a more positive note, Gambit have only struggled against their regional rivals in Entropiq (9-16) and Virtus.pro (16-14) and looked solid on Monday against Ninjas in Pyjamas (16-13, 16-6).

Gambit can be a much stronger team on a good day, but they have had some shaky moments recently, whereas FURIA are seemingly playing at their peak level. Therefore, no result would surprise us; however, we can safely assume neither team will walk away from this bout without dropping a map.

?Team Vitality had an abysmal start to PGL Major Stockholm 2021, dropping their opening two New Legends Stage bouts against Virtus.pro and Heroic. Much of their struggles were due to Mathieu “ZywOo” Herbaut’s poor performances early on, posting match ratings of under 1.0 in both of those losses. But once the French CS:GO superstar woke up, Vitality started performing significantly better.

Vitality still seemed a bit off in their third bout against Evil Geniuses (2-1) but delivered against Astralis (2-1) on Monday and Entropiq (2-1) on Tuesday to clinch a playoff berth. Over those three fixtures, ZywOo averaged a 1.42 rating, with 1.51 and 1.49 in Vitality’s last two outings.

Natus Vincere enter this match as the world no.1 and the betting favourites to win the organisation’s first Major title, and rightfully so. Oleksandr “s1mple” Kostyliev and co. have been nothing short of phenomenal over the last five months, winning four tournaments and placing second in the remaining two, with a 90.5% win rate across the last three months. Even at the Major, NaVi have not failed to deliver, going 3-0 in the opening stage with wins against Heroic, Virtus.pro, and Ninjas in Pyjamas.

Due to their success, it’s no surprise that NaVi are priced as $1.22 favourites for this match, but it’s important to note that they’re far less efficient than Vitality on Dust II (50% – 71%) and Vertigo (0% – 70%). Team Vitality have won at least one map against NaVi across their last seven meetings, and they should be able to win at least one on Friday as well.

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?It’s no secret that FaZe Clan have been struggling this season, and while Finn “karrigan” Andersen and co. should perform better on LAN, it’s very tough to be optimistic about this squad. FaZe are 7-4 across their last 11 outings, but that record is a bit misleading since they haven’t beaten any notable squads.

FaZe Clan’s only notable accomplishment of 2021 happened in July when they placed top-four at Intel Extreme Masters XVI Cologne. Since then, FaZe haven’t accomplished anything of note.

Team Spirit haven’t achieved much more than FaZe and have even lost games against weaker teams – including FunPlus Phoenix, K23, and Entropiq – but that doesn’t explain the latest CS:GO betting odds. These opening Bo1 tournament matches are usually much closer than expected, and while FaZe should have a slight edge, there is far more value with Team Spirit.

?Even though both teams are Danish, Copenhagen Flames and Astralis have yet to meet on the battlefield. And even though we don’t have any previous head-to-head record to look at, it’s very easy to understand why the defending Major champions are priced at only $1.44.

However, the answer to that is not necessarily because Astralis are that much better, but because the esports bookmakers consistently overvalue them. Even though Astralis are tough to beat, we shouldn’t overlook Copenhagen, especially in a Bo1.

The Flames have achieved plenty across the last few months and even finished top seven at Intel Extreme Masters Season XVI Fall Europe at the start of October. They could have placed higher had they had a more favourable draw; however, they still won against G2 Esports and BIG and forced tight series against Team Vitality and Movistar Riders.

Rasmus “HooXi” Nielsen and co. have the tools to win this bout, but we will play it safe and side with the outsiders with a 3.5-round advantage.

?Renegades impressed many when they reached the StarLadder Berlin Major semi-finals in 2019. Although a remarkable achievement for the organization, this is not the same roster. The current iteration of Renegades includes enough solid pieces to score upset wins against teams who underestimate them, but their long-term success remains questionable.

Movistar Riders are surprise attendees at the Major, but there is no denying that they deserve to be here. As a relatively unknown roster that lacks star names, not many people expect Movistar to deliver; however, based on their recent showings (5th at IEM Fall), we would consider them as dark horses to reach the playoffs.

Movistar Riders should win, but we don’t expect a complete stomp. The esports bookmakers have set the total round line at 26.5, which seems very low and presents us with a great bet. Renegades might not win, but they should be able to reach double digits.

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BIG are priced as the betting favourites for their opening PGL Major Stockholm 2021 bout with Entropiq, which doesn’t seem right. And not because Entropiq are stronger, but rather because BIG are weaker than what the CS:GO betting odds suggest.

BIG have yet to find their footing since the departure of ?smailсan “XANTARES” D?rtkarde? in August 2021 and haven’t placed higher than fourth-sixth in any tournament across the last two months. While still an excellent tactical team, BIG lack firepower.

Entropiq, meanwhile, placed top four at Malta Vibes Knockout Series #2 in September and earlier this month finished Intel Extreme Masters XVI Fall CIS in third. Even though the Russians haven’t faced a top-tier team since IEM Fall CIS, that’s hardly an excuse not to bet on them at odds of better than $2.00.

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