Yangon Galacticos and Army Geniuses will clash for the first time since October when they parted ways with a 1-1 draw. And according to the latest Dota 2 betting odds, we could see another stalemate on Saturday. While that seems like a real possibility, we wouldn’t bet on a draw at $1.85.

Army Geniuses enter this bout following a solid performance against Neptune Gaming (1-1), and we can’t say we weren’t impressed with their showing against Phoenix Gaming on Tuesday. That is not to say that AG are one of the favourites to win the title, but they’ve shown enough for us to have faith in them to cause some damage this weekend.

You could make a case for Yangon Galacticos, who won back-to-back outings but only against KOBOLDS and 496 Gaming, which is hardly convincing. It could be a close one, but Army Geniuses have shown more this tournament.

Phoenix Gaming have managed only three wins this tournament (3-2-2) against Summit Gaming, Rush b, and Neptune Gaming, which is nothing to write home about. Although they played well against Lilgun (1-1) a week ago, it’s hard to feel optimistic about them heading into this bout.

Phoenix’s biggest issue is lack of synergy, which is expected from a new roster, and as a result, they’re not very consistent. Looking at their past results, Phoenix have managed solid showings against top teams, but they also collapsed against much weaker opponents.

So while Phoenix Gaming have potential, they’re not stable enough for us to have faith in them. Yangon Galacticos have done relatively well against teams of similar quality before, and they should be able to punish mistakes, so we have to take their side for this bout.

Crocodile earned us a nice payout with their win against Neptune Gaming on Thursday, and yet they continue to be undervalued by the esports betting sites. At $6.82, the esports bookies are giving Crocodile only a 14.7% chance of beating KOBOLDS, which is way too low in our book.

KOBOLDS enter this match with a 3-3 record, but their only three wins came against the struggling Phoenix Gaming, Summit Gaming, and rush b. What’s more, KOBOLDS are on a three-game losing steak, with defeats against Lilgun, 496 Gaming, and Yangon Galacticos.

Even though you could argue that KOBOLDS are stronger, they haven’t shown anything of note yet, and based on their recent performances, they definitely don’t’ deserve to be priced as such big favourites. Crocodile at $6.82 present us with an excellent value bet.

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Army Geniuses enter this bout with a 2-2-1 record and eight points, which is good for sixth place in the standings. Although Army Geniuses could have done much better, they still won against Phoenix Gaming on Tuesday, handing the Chinese Dota 2 roster their second loss of the tournament.

Neptune Gaming are 2-0-1 with wins against Lilgun and Summit Gaming, while their only defeat so far came on Tuesday when Neptune lost against Phoenix. However, the game was very close, and Neptune had excellent chances to win. Even though it’s hard to praise a team that choked, it’s not fair to say that Neptune are much weaker than Phoenix.

Talent-wise, there isn’t much to separate Army Geniuses and Neptune Gaming, nor can we set them apart based on their recent showings. As the latest Dota 2 betting odds suggest, a draw is the most likely outcome, but $1.85 is not a good price, so we have to take a shot with the outsiders.

Although Neptune Gaming might be a middle-of-the-table team, 496 Gaming deserve the same tag as a squad that is good but not great. They’re 3-1-2 after six outings, with wins against Rush b, Yangon Galacticos, and KOBOLDS, who 496 defeated on Tuesday.

Across the six outings, 496 Gaming have proven that they can compete with the strongest teams at the tournament. But there were moments when 496 seemed a bit out of sync, which is normal for a squad that came together only a month ago.

496 Gaming have potential, but they are not consistent enough, making it tough to side with them. On the other hand, Neptune Gaming already won against Summit, Lilgun, and they looked strong against Phoenix Gaming on Tuesday, so we have to have faith in them to deliver against 496.

Crocodile are 0-2-8 across their last ten outings, so we don’t have an issue with the esports betting sites pricing them as underdogs for this bout. But $6.66 seems a bit too high.

Admittedly, Crocodile haven’t won a single match since Wednesday, December 8 (against Team Pirates), but there is more to their record than meets the eye. Crocodile played well during Moon Studio Snow League a couple of weeks back and produced two highly competitive series against Ragdoll and the eventual tournament champions, LBZS.

Besides that, Crocodile looked solid against Lilgun on Saturday and were just one teamfight away from winning the first map of the series. So while Crocodile might be 0-2-8, they went toe-to-toe with teams stronger than 496 Gaming.

A smaller position on Crocodile is worth a shot at the offered betting odds. A map handicap bet on Crocodile is worth considering as a safer alternative.

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Phoenix Gaming parted ways with its entire Dota 2 roster in November and now field a new squad featuring unproven and young talent. Although a drastic change, Phoenix got their hands on some solid players and shouldn’t struggle at this level of play.

Army Geniuses also made a couple of roster changes this offseason, adding two former Prime players in Muhammad “Azur4” Lutfi and Rizki “Varizh” Varizh, as replacements for Tri Daya “Mamang Daya” Pamungkas and Yukatheo “you_K” Glen. It’s unfair to judge the team before we see them play, but AG seem to have downgraded with the recent additions, which is concerning, knowing that they haven’t achieved much in 2021.

Phoenix Gaming enter this match as underdogs, which likely has to do with the fact that they’re an unknown quality. But since Army Geniuses don’t look particularly strong, we have to take a shot with Phoenix Gaming at $3.20.

KOBOLDS enter this match on a three-game winning streak, with wins against Phoenix Gaming (2-0), Summit (2-0), and rush B (2-0). Although a solid record, the Mongolian squad weren’t impressive at the start of the month when they crashed out of Moon Studio Snow League in eighth place, with a 1-6-2 record.

Still, KOBOLDS forced draws against both tournament finalists in LBZS and Execration and even the eventual bronze medalist, Ragdoll. So while KOBOLDS failed to win more than a game, they were highly competitive against all of the tournament’s top teams.

496 Gaming, while a more recognisable name, hardly deserve to be priced as the favourites for this bout. They are in terrible form and have achieved far less than KOBOLDS recently, despite facing teams of similar quality. Most notably, 496 are 0-4 with a 1-8 map differential four rounds into Dota Pro Circuit (DPC) Southeast Asia Tour 1 Division II.

Based on what we have seen from 496, it’s hard to pass on KOBOLDS at the outsider odds.

Yangon Galacticos added Aung “ShowTi” Myat Soe as their new no.3 at the start of December, and it soon became apparent that it was the right call. With the help of the 26-year-old Dota 2 veteran, Yangon finished top-four at Moon Studio Snow League last week, where their only defeat of the playoffs came against the eventual champions, LBZS.
Still, Yangon left a lot to be desired with their performance during the group stage, having managed only one win and seven draws (1-7-1), one of which came against KOBOLDS on December 7. The series ended in a 1-1 draw, but Yangon Galacticos were the better team and would have won the match had they not choked in the first map with a 9k net worth lead.

We must give KOBOLD some praise for clawing their way back into that game, but that doesn’t mean they performed equally as well. KOBOLD proved that they could compete with any team at this level of play, but Yangon Galacticos at $2.70 is too good to pass.

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